Storm Central: BREAKING: KANTO Region (South of Tokyo City, Japan) Passage by Strong Category 2 Typhoon ROKE/18W by Evening Hours (JST)

At 0232pm-PHL (0632Z)/Pacific Northwest: 21 September 2011

Iloilo City, Iloilo 5000 Philippines

Weatherguy Adonis

The ”Fast and the furious”–Former Category 4 Typhoon “ROKE/18W” has now been downgraded into a Category 3 systemearly today 0800am-PHL (0000Z) at maximum sustained winds of 185-231 km/hr at 950 hPa, now it has been slowly losing steam atCategory 2 strength at 170-195 km/hr still at 950 hPa, according to JMA. However, JTWC pegged it 956 hPa near 35.0N-137E at 0216pm-PHL (0616Z) issue. PBO Analysis indicate a relatively large, convective banding “Eyewall” feature within the LLCC over land mass which borders Iwata and Fukuroi in Shizuoka Prefecture.

Further observation and analysis indicate the system is traversing over oceanographic conditions inhibited by a strengthening Shearing environment to the East of the system, while outflow continues to aide from the Southeast of it. Runtime also yield in agreement with the previous forecast track issued early today at 1000am-PHL (0200Z), that it should track parallel to Central Kanto region which houses Tokyo City–Japan’s economic powerhouse (please refer to: Intense Category 3 Typhoon ROKE/ONYOK/18W Nearing Landfall in Central Honshu Region, Japan).

I should also add to this broadcast that as the banding eye feature of the LLCC cannot be initially confirmed over land, DVORAKestimates the system to maintain its intensity as it progresses further into Kanto region (a wobble North or South of Tokyo City would define its eventual North-northeasterly track before the early evening hours–JST). I’d like also to point out that since the Upper-level wind analysis showed a TUTT to the Southeast of the system sustained the good radial outflow into the convective“Eyewall” of Category 2 Typhoon “ROKE/18W” at the moment.

Torrential Rains, Violent Winds Pummel Coastal regions

Typhoons are areas of low barometric centers which are also generators of heavy, squally rainfall which could precipitate even greater amounts of precipitation over time. Flash floods and mudslides aren’t that new to the region and all its components rolled into one place, raises the risk for inundating floods in the forecast as the rugged terrains, and bays close by near river channels across Honshu and Tokai regions could be an area of interest for evacuation.

Doppler Radar Imagery (shown below) are indicative of torrential rains bearing down on Shizuoka & Tokai Prefectures, and lightning activity has been observed with quite constraint near Northeast of the LLCC over land, which could influence isolated “Tornado”amplified in the process and progressive lightning as the rapid upward and downwards motion of electrified atmosphere within the system could generally spawn violent winds.

Nothing of the Ordinary, Forecast Track

Through time, and eversince the early civilizations of Asia, the coastal regions of Japan are accustomed to these violence of winds, high surging coastal storm surges and interrelated hazards, I suppose all Prefectural government agencies that are being affected has already conducted “Preemptive Evacuations” in the earnest part of this day, which the Japanese people are most prepared as regards to “Disasters” of this magnitude.I would also like to note that the slow-moving moisture-laden belt of Upper-level cloud suspended over Northereastern Prefecturesof Niigata, Fukushima, Akita, Sendai and Morioka could see high amounts of precipitation well into the 22-24 hr forecast of the system as it plows through the Northernmost regions of Southern Hokkaido regions in the coming days as a slow, lumbering Extra-tropical system by TAU 48.

Next update by 1200am-PHL (1600Z) 22 September 2011.

This has been your Weatherguy Adonis from this part of the world: The Philippines wishing all in Japan the best and hunker down for the “Tempest of storms” come your way over Kanto region throughout the evening hours tonight. Stay cool and be on the safe side of things always.Always stay tuned here at www.ExtremeStormCentral.com for the very latest issuances of Tropical Activity around the world. And to my partner Jason Scott, thanks tol! Good night from us here. Have a great day ahead all you guys out there! May God be with us! ;D

With data from RAMMB, JTWC, JMA, NOAA and NRL Research Lab MRY.