Weatherguy Adonis
By: Weatherguy Adonis
At 1232pm-PHL (0432Z)/2332pm-CDT/North Atlantic Basin: 22 September 2011
Iloilo City, Iloilo 5000 Philippines
A Look Back on the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season–A Record High
It’s another round of waiting anxious hours and days perhaps before a brewing system off the North Atlantic Basin explosively intensifies into a full-pledge Hurricane and that is a matter of having the right atmospheric and oceanographic conditions all in one setting. Also, September is the month of usually “Extreme Hurricanes” based on record.
The North Atlantic Basin has yet to jump start a series of Tropical activity, way below the 2005 threshold, which yielded a whopping 31 Hurricanes on its sleeves–shattered all records in the US history on Hurricane occurrence in a year span. It would also be noteworthy to consider that of the 31 total Hurricanes of 2005. Based on record, 28 of these named systems were considered a“Record High” for a year, 15 of these are “Record Hurricanes, “ (which are Category 3 or higher), and to sum it all up, 7 were tagged as “Major Hurricanes,” Wilma was the top-grosser at 185 mi/hr top winds, with 882 hPa central pressure on a 1-minute sustained scale by the NOAA National Weather Service.
I’d like also to take into context the statements made during a NOAA news conference with NOAA’s Top Brass, which says,“Arguably, it was the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
I would like also to note that on record, in 2005, there was this “Hurricane Ophelia“ too, it has affected the Bahamas early week of September as a Tropical Depression before it struck the coast of Florida as it points more to the North Carolina coast on 12-13 September of same year.
A study conducted by NOAA, indicated the ferocity of Tropical Systems along the North Atlantic Ridge in 2005 was a result of
atmospheric conditions ripe for severe and relatively stronger Hurricanes since the OHCs (Ocean Heat Content) were high, very much favorable for rapid intensification and explosive deepening of the LLCCs (Low Level Center Circulation) of systems. Also, the global trending of above-than-normal average SSTs (Sea Surface Temperature), the Shearing environments and Upper-level wind signatures contribute to the extensive banding of Tropical Waves traversing the Equatorial and Tropics which emanates from the Saharan environment in Central & Western Africa which spawns these Tropical Waves, and eventual development into ferocious Hurricanes.The Major Hurricanes that has struck the US Coast and laid waste to more than $Billions, claimed the lives of so many were the following:
1. DENNIS
1. DENNIS
2. KATRINA
3. RITA
4. WILMA
Hurricane Katrina started off the Bahamas as an area of disturbed weather, and later reached minimum Hurricane threshold on 24 August 2005, and at that time, with a short span of time, reached the coast of Florida as a Category 1 Hurricane. A sudden explosive deepening had occurred in the following hours as it traversed over land mass and re-emerged on the relatively warm SST of the Gulf of Mexico, which fueled its explosive deepening of LLCC, catapulted it to the top-category of tempest of all storms, an extremely rare Category 5 Hurricane on 28 August 2005.
On 29 August 2005, it has eased a bit as a huge Category 3 system, still a potent “Weapon of Mass Destruction” it made landfall near the Mississippi River system, spawned the mother of all storm surges along the coastal Gulf States of Mississippi, Louisiana and parts of Alabama. It virtually decimated everything on its immediate path as it pushes over land that has wrought a ”Catastrophic Damage, “ which swamped the low-lying regions of Lake Ponchartrain in New Orleans, causing the 80% “Flood of the Century”that has sunk the city for the longest days in its history.
To this day, Hurricane Katrina was the last straw in the line of “Most Destructive” among all Hurricanes since records began. The years that followed the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, never was ever an event the Hurricane Season was this busy and was the most destructive in the history of the United States of America in modern times.
Tropical Storm OPHELIA/AL16 Grows Strong By The Day
At 1232pm-PHL (0432Z)/2332pm-CDT, 22 September 2011, Tropical Storm “OPHELIA/AL16″ was located in the North Atlantic Basin at 13.7°N and 46.2°W. The current intensity was 60 mi/hr and the center was moving West at 15 mi/hr. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb.Several OHC readings indicate that the ”Ophelia/Al16″ is traversing over 23.9°C (75°F), under the influence of a Mid-level Shearing environment to its Northwest, with 47-70 mi/hr maximum, which maintains its Westerly track within the next 12-24 hours before making a West-northwest trajectory sparing the Leeward Island chain, and would miss Puerto Rico in the long range forecast. But I won’t be so surprised if the moderate shearing effects would take the system further on a West to Northwest bearing in a couple of days from now. Anywhere from the Leewards to Puerto Rico should give due interest for this system.
The Upper-level wind analysis also depict an intensifying anti-cyclonic signature along the Northwest periphery of the system, which could also drift aloft winds away from it. Relative Vorticity shows wrapped around the semi-sheared LLCC and most of its convective banding was showing a displacement especially from its Southwestern periphery, where circulation a bit off-placed at the moment.Long range forecast indicate that Tropical Storm “OPHELIA/AL16″ will maintain its West to Northwesterly forward track though 72 hrs if the global models hold water in such dynamic trending of the system.
I think that the system will intensify gradually by the hour as the Dry Air wrapping the region remains relatively mild. A steady increase in intensity at maximum of 5-7 mi/hr can be expected in the coming hours.
Tropical Storm HILARY/EP09 Expected To Become Hurricane, Aims Towards South Of Baja, California
At 1232pm-PHL (0432Z)/0832pm-PDT, 22 September 2011, Tropical Storm “Hilary/EP09″ was located in the Northeast Pacific Basin at 14.4°N and 97.2°W. The current intensity was 50 mi/hr and the center was moving West-northwest at 7 mi/hr. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb.
Upper-level wind analysis indicate the system could rapidly increase intensity as oceanographic and atmospheric conditions prove favorable, with relatively Low to Mid-level Shearing environment constrained to the North of it. It should stay clear from South of Mexico.“Hilary/EP09″ by satellite loop proved impressive as the system pulls slowly away from land mass and become better organized by the hour, I should not be more than expecting it to weaken but an intensification phase should occur within the next 12-24 hrs. The good thing is that, in its long range forecast, it should remain clear from any land mass except the South of Baja coast.
All interest for this system should be taken into account as PBO yields a tightening LLCC, with convective banding circulation feature, that displaces a lot of precipitation to its Southwest and Southeast of its semi-circle structure. Mexican coast should continue to receive a fair amount of rainfall as the system inches away, actually slowly towards the Pacific.
Stay tuned for more Tropics Analysis on our System off the North Atlantic Basin right here at www.ExtremeStormCentral.com with Jason Scott, Josh Martin, Dr. Jeff Masters and Levi Cowan. Have a great night in the Mainland USA and a good afternoon for us here in the Pacific Northwest. God bless all! ;D
(c) 2011 Weatherguy Adonis
(c) 2011 Weatherguy Adonis
Iloilo City 5000 Philippines
0113pm-PHL(0513Z)/092211
AL162011 - Tropical Storm OPHELIA
EP092011 - Tropical Storm HILARY
